September Home Sales Rise Across the GTA: Confidence Begins to Return as Market Finds Its Balance
After months of uncertainty, we’re starting to see more confidence returning to the Greater Toronto Area housing market. September 2025 brought a notable uptick in activity, with more buyers stepping back in — encouraged by slightly lower mortgage rates and the sense that stability is returning.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), there were just over 5,500 sales in September, up 8.5% compared to last year. That’s a healthy sign of renewed demand. At the same time, new listings also rose modestly by about 4% month-over-month, showing that more sellers are testing the market again.
When we look at shorter-term trends, however, sales were up while new listings actually dipped slightly from August, suggesting that available inventory might tighten again heading into the fall.
The average sale price across the GTA is down about 5% year-over-year, but prices have been relatively stable month-to-month. This tells us that the major correction phase is likely behind us — we’re now entering a period of balance and adjustment rather than volatility.
Condominiums have seen the largest price declines, while Peel, Halton, and York regions are showing slightly steeper adjustments than areas such as Durham or Orangeville, where affordability has held up better. New construction sales, meanwhile, have continued to struggle, largely due to higher carrying costs and limited investor confidence.
Despite that, we’re seeing encouraging signals. Buyer sentiment has improved since the Bank of Canada’s September rate drop, even though the statistical impact will take another month or two to fully show up in the data. Often, it’s not the rate change itself that moves the market — it’s the psychological shift in confidence that follows it.
Looking back at last year, October through December 2024 turned out to be one of the busiest stretches of the year, with November recording over 6,500 sales. If that pattern repeats, we may see a stronger-than-expected fall market in 2025.
At The Sharda Group, we believe what we’re seeing now is not a “crash” or a “recovery” — it’s a return to normal market conditions. During the frenzy of 2021–2022, buyers had almost no control; properties sold within days, often with multiple offers and little due diligence. Then came the sharp correction, where headlines shifted from “bidding wars” to “market collapse.”
But this in-between stage is where smart, long-term decisions happen.
Buyers now have more choice, sellers are more realistic, and negotiations are more balanced. This is what a healthy real estate market is supposed to look like.
Yes, some homeowners who bought at the 2022 peak are feeling the sting of temporary paper losses. But that’s part of any market cycle — and real estate has always rewarded those who take a long-term perspective.
If you’re a first-time buyer, you now have opportunities that didn’t exist just two years ago. If you’re an investor or upsizer, this is your window to make strategic moves before confidence and competition inevitably rise again.
These moments don’t come often. When the next market upswing hits, we’ll look back and realize that fall 2025 was when calm confidence — not fear — paid off.
The Sharda Group is here to help you read the market with clarity, act with confidence, and move with purpose.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or simply want an honest conversation about where the market’s heading, let’s connect.
Sources
FICO Survey Finds 90% of Canadians Value Customer Experience Over Products and Services | FICO
A Review of Ontario's Housing Market in 2025 | TeraIntelligence
Renewing your mortgage? What the Bank of Canada’s rate cut means for you - National | Globalnews.ca
How much is bank loyalty really costing you? | Ratehub.ca
